Is there any study showing how probabilities of various kinds of aviation (e.g. crash-landings, fatal crashes, mid-air collisions) accidents have increased or reduced over time?
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@RalphJ - True about the wealth of information. Not sure if this information is on Stack Exchange, though. Should I delete this query? – Krishnaraj Rao Oct 04 '15 at 16:51
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What is your definition of an accident? See: What is the difference between aviation “accident” and “incident”? – mins Oct 04 '15 at 16:55
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2@mins - Accident as defined by ICAO annex 13. [http://www.iprr.org/manuals/Annex13.html ] – Krishnaraj Rao Oct 04 '15 at 17:08
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6@RalphJ We prefer not to just send people to Google. Even if the information is available, many people have difficulty finding the right links and understanding them. That's exactly how SE can help. – Pondlife Oct 04 '15 at 17:14
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@mins - Well, I was actually thinking about statistical probabilities. While boarding a plane, what are the chances of that plane being in an accident? – Krishnaraj Rao Oct 04 '15 at 18:27
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1I'm sure the information is right here: See this, for example. – Peter Kämpf Oct 04 '15 at 19:24
1 Answers
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Short answer
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) publishes each year a report about aircraft accidents in the world. The latest one indicates these average figures:
- There are 3.3 billion passengers per year.
- There are 100,000 flights per day.
Over the last four years the accident rate decreased from 94 to 73 accidents per year.
In 2014, among these 36,500,000 flights:
- There has been a total of 73 accidents
- 12 accidents had fatalities (641 fatalities).
ICAO also publishes statistics which can be viewed online according to custom criteria.
Extracts from IATA 2015 report
(Source: IATA report)
Period 2010-2014
(Source: IATA report)
Type and fatalities:
(Source: IATA report)
Geographical distribution:
(Source: IATA report)
ICAO statistics
ICAO publishes statistics which can also be viewed using a graphical web front-end:
ICAO accident statistics application
Data ("open data" series) can be accessed using the public API, but registration is required.
mins
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