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We want to prove that $$\mathbb P(\sup_{0\leq s\leq t}W_s\geq a)=2\mathbb P(W_t\geq a).$$

Here is the proof.

My mistakes are in the proof of $$\mathbb P(\sup_{0\leq s\leq t}W_s\geq a, W_t<a)=\frac{1}{2}\mathbb P(W_t\geq a).$$

So let $\tau_a=\inf\{t\geq 0\mid W_t=a\}$. A famous result says that $(X_t:=W_{t+\tau_a}-W_{\tau_a})_t$ is a Brownian motion independent of $\mathcal F_{\tau_a}$. Then, they say :

\begin{align*} \mathbb P\left(\sup_{0\leq s\leq t}W_s\geq a,W_t<a\right) =&\mathbb P\left(\sup_{0\leq s\leq t}W_s\geq a, X(t-\tau_a)<0\right) \\ &=\mathbb E[\mathbb E[\boldsymbol 1_{\{\sup_{0\leq s\leq t}W_s\geq a\}}\boldsymbol 1_{\{X(t-\tau_a)<0\}}\mid \mathcal F_{\tau_a}]]\\ &=\mathbb E[\boldsymbol 1_{\{\sup_{0\leq s\leq t}W_s\geq a\}}\mathbb E[\boldsymbol 1_{\{X(t-\tau_a)<0\}}\mid \mathcal F_{\tau_a}]]. \end{align*}

Q1) Why $\boldsymbol 1_{\sup_{0\leq s\leq t}W_s\geq a}$ is $\mathcal F_{\tau_a}-$measurable ? I agree that it's $\mathcal F_t-$measurable, but since a priori $\mathcal F_t$ is not in $\mathcal F_{\tau_a}$, I don't understand why we can take it out of the expectation.

Q2) (with several under questions)

  • After they say that $\mathbb E[\boldsymbol 1_{\{X(t-\tau_a)\}}\mid \mathcal F_{\tau_a}]=\frac{1}{2}$, and also, I don't understand why.

  • I agree that $(X_t)$ is a brownian motion, and so, indeed, $\mathbb P\{X_t\leq 0\}=\frac{1}{2}$, but here we have $X(t-\tau_a)$ (which is not clear what is this process... why should it be a Brownian motion ?) By the way, I have the impression that $t-\tau_a$ can be negative, and so $X_{t-\tau_a}$ could be not well defined. Indeed, it's weird to say that $t>\tau_a$ since $\tau_a$ is random, so we don't know pointwise what is it.

saz
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John
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1 Answers1

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Since $$\left\{ \sup_{0 \leq s \leq t} W_s \geq a \right\} = \{\tau_a \leq t\} \tag{1}$$ and $\tau_a$ is $\mathcal{F}_{\tau_a}$-measurable, it follows that $$\left\{\sup_{0 \leq s \leq t} W_s \geq a \right\} \in \mathcal{F}_{\tau_a}.$$ This answers your first question. Re the 2nd one: You are right that one has to be careful with these computations. I would argue as follows: Since $(X_t)_{t \geq 0}$ is independent from $\mathcal{F}_{\tau_a}$ and $\tau_a$ is $\mathcal{F}_{\tau_a}$-measurable, it holds that $$\mathbb{E}(1_{\{\tau_a \leq t\}} 1_{\{X(t-\tau_a)<0\}} \mid \mathcal{F}_{\tau_a}) = g(\tau_a)$$ where $$g(s) := \mathbb{E}(1_{\{s \leq t\}} 1_{\{X(t-s)<0\}}),$$see the proposition in this answer. Clearly, $$g(s) = 1_{\{s \leq t\}} \mathbb{P}(X(t-s)<0) = \frac{1}{2} 1_{\{s \leq t\}},$$

and so

$$\mathbb{E}(1_{\{\tau_a \leq t\}} 1_{\{X(t-\tau_a)<0\}} \mid \mathcal{F}_{\tau_a})= \frac{1}{2} 1_{\{\tau_a \leq t\}}.$$

Taking expectation and using $(1)$ this gives

$$\mathbb{P}(\tau_a \leq t, X(t-\tau_a) <0) = \frac{1}{2} \mathbb{P}(\sup_{s \leq t} W_s \geq a).$$

Combining this with the calculations in your question, the assertion follows.

saz
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  • Just a small question, for $\mathbb E[\boldsymbol 1_{\tau_a\leq t}\boldsymbol 1_{X(t-\tau_a)}\mid \mathcal F_{\tau_a}]=g(\tau_a)$, can I argue as follow (even if the proposition of your link works, it's just by curiosity) : $$\mathbb E[\boldsymbol 1_{{\tau_a\leq t}}\boldsymbol 1_{{X(t-\tau_a)<0}}\mid \mathcal F_{\tau_a}]=\boldsymbol 1_{\tau_a\leq t}\mathbb E[\boldsymbol 1_{{X(t-\tau_a)<0}}\mid \mathcal F_{\tau_a}]=\boldsymbol 1_{\tau_a\leq t}\mathbb E[\boldsymbol 1_{{X(t-\tau_a)<0}}]=g(\tau_a)$$ where $g(s)=\boldsymbol 1_{s\leq t}\mathbb E[\boldsymbol 1_{X(t-s)}<0]$. – John Aug 30 '19 at 09:51
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    @John It's not a good idea to pull the indicator function outside the (conditional) expectation. The problem is that $X(t-\tau_a)$ is not well-defined if $\tau_a>t$. As long as the indicator function is inside the expectation, there is no problem because we only consider $\omega$ with $\tau_{a}(\omega) \leq t$ (... because the indicator function is zero for all other $\omega$) – saz Aug 30 '19 at 09:57
  • Good point. Thank you :) – John Aug 30 '19 at 10:09
  • You say that $\mathbb E[\boldsymbol 1_{T-\tau_a}<0\mid \mathcal F_a]$ is well define only if $\tau_a\leq T$. But here it's rather $$\boldsymbol 1_{\tau_a\leq T}\mathbb E[\boldsymbol 1_{{X(T-\tau_a)}}\mid \mathcal \tau_a].$$ So, it's rather cleat that $\tau_a\leq T$ (because if $\tau_a>T$, then the previous expression is $0$). So, the comment of john on August30'19 works, no ? (I don't get the problem). – Walace May 09 '20 at 14:06
  • @Walace No, it doesn't work that way. Note that the expression equals $$1_{\tau_a \leq T}(\omega) \mathbb{E} 1_{X(T-\tau_a)}(\omega') \mid \tau_a,$$ i.e. the conditional expectation is taking with respect to $\omega'$ (not with respect to $\omega$).... and $X(T-\tau_a)(\omega')$ is not well defined for $\omega'$ with $\tau_a(\omega')>T$. – saz May 10 '20 at 10:56
  • Sorry, But I don't really understand your notation. So, if $X(\omega )=x$, for you it's not correct that $$X(\omega )\mathbb Ef(YX)\mid X=x\mathbb E[f(YX)\mid X=x]=x\mathbb E[f(Yx)\mid X=x]\ \ ?$$ I asked a question similar here some time ago (with no answer), maybe this is my misunderstood ? Thanks a lot @saz – Walace May 14 '20 at 10:52
  • @Walace In this particular case, which we are interested in, the conditional expectation $\mathbb{E}(f(YX) \mid \mathcal{F})$ is not well defined because $f(XY)(\omega)$ is not well defined for some $\omega \in \Omega$. (Re your "similar" question you might take a look here or at some suitable measure theory/probability book) – saz May 14 '20 at 11:54
  • Sorry but your $$1_{\tau_a\leq T}(\omega )\mathbb E1_{X(T-\tau_a)}(\omega ')\mid \tau_a$$ really confuse me. What is this $\omega '$ ? Moreover, according to my previous post :$$1_{\tau_a\leq T}(\omega )\mathbb E1_{X(T-\tau_a)}\mid \tau_a=1_{\tau_a\leq T}(\omega )\mathbb E[1_{X(T-\tau_a)}\mid \tau_a=\tau_a(\omega )]=1_{\tau_a\leq T}(\omega )\mathbb E[1_{X(T-\tau_a(\omega ))}\mid \tau_a=\tau_a(\omega )]$$ and since $\tau_a(\omega )\leq T$ (because $1_{\tau_a\leq T}(\omega )$ means $\tau_a(\omega )\leq T$), everything seem to be well defined, no ? – Walace May 21 '20 at 18:01
  • Sorry to insist, but I really want to clarify why my previous argument is wrong (because since we don't have $\mathbb E[f(X\tau_a)\mid \mathcal F_{\tau}]$, but really $\mathbb E[f(X\tau_a)\mid \tau_a]$, I don't think that $f(X\tau_a)(\omega )$ is not so well defined if $\tau_a=\tau_a(\omega )$. Because $f(X\tau_a)=f(X(\alpha ),\tau_a(\omega ))$. So I don't get why my previous argument is wrong. Thanks a lo for your time. – Walace May 21 '20 at 18:04
  • @Walace $X_{T-\tau_a}(\omega)$ is not well defined for $\omega \in {\tau_a>T}$, i.e. on a set of positive probability. I already tried to explain this for several times but obviously I'm failing to do so. – saz May 21 '20 at 19:01
  • But don't we have that $X_{T-\tau_a}(\omega )=X_{T-\tau_a(\omega )}(\omega )$ ? And since $$1_{\tau_a\leq T}(\omega )\mathbb E[X_{T-\tau(\omega )}\mid \tau_a=\tau_a(\omega )]=0$$ if $\omega \in {\tau_a>T}$ we don't care if $X_{T-\tau_a}$ is not so well defined. I really don't get the point here. So, indeed if $\omega \in {\tau_a>T}$, then $X_{T-\tau_a(\omega )}$, is not so well defined, but we have anyway that $$1_{\tau_a\leq T}(\omega )\mathbb E[X_{T-\tau(\omega )}\mid \tau_a=\tau_a(\omega )]=0.$$ I don't get the problem here, this work no ? (thank you for your time and your help) @saz – Walace May 21 '20 at 19:45
  • @saz: Sorry to insist, but could you please answer to my last comment when you'll have time ? Many thanks :) – Walace May 22 '20 at 22:07
  • @Walace You seem to be very convinced that you are correct so why insist so much on me answering once again? I already tried to explain you several times that it doesn't work like this; another comment of mine won't change anything. A) When calculating an conditional expectation $\omega \mapsto \mathbb{E}(Y \mid \mathcal{F})(\omega)$ you cannot evaluate the "integrand" at omega, i.e $\mathbb{E}(Y \mid \mathcal{F})(\omega) \neq \mathbb{E}(Y(\omega) \mid \mathcal{F})(\omega)$. – saz May 23 '20 at 04:38
  • You also seem to be ignoring that we are conditioning on $\mathcal{F}{\tau_a}$ and not on $\sigma(\tau_a)$, which are two totally different $\sigma$-algebras. In particular, $\mathbb{E}(\ldots \mid \mathcal{F}{\tau_a})$ need not be a function of $\tau_a$, i.,e. all your reasoning about putting $\tau_a = t<T$ doesn't work. I'm not going planning to write any further comments on this topic. If it is really so important to you, you could open a new question. – saz May 23 '20 at 04:39
  • @saz: Thanks once again for your answer. So, I completely agree that $\mathbb EX\mid \mathcal F\neq \mathbb E[X(\omega )\mid \mathcal F]$. Nevertheless, is it wrong that $$\mathbb Ef(X,Y)\mid Y=\mathbb E\left[f\big(X,Y(\omega )\big)\mid Y=Y(\omega )\right]\ \ ?$$ I have the impression that it's true (but I'm probably completely wrong). – Walace May 23 '20 at 10:47
  • @saz: Also, do you prefer that I erase all my previous post ? (and don't worry, I won't ask question again here :)). – Walace May 23 '20 at 12:21
  • @Walace I do not see how the fornula in your previous comment is related to the question which we are discussing. We are talking about an conditional expectation of the form $\mathbb{E}(f(X,Y) \mid \mathcal{F})$ and not $\mathbb{E}(f(X,Y) \mid Y)$. Regarding this particular identity, i already gave you a link, which should answer the question whether this equation holds true or not (.... in one of the many comments above...) – saz May 23 '20 at 13:55
  • @saz: It's related by the fact that $$\mathbb E[1_{\tau_a\leq T}X(T-\tau_a\mid \mathcal F_{\tau_a}]=\mathbb E[1_{\tau_a\leq T}X(T-\tau_a)\mid \tau_a].$$ And so, $$\mathbb E1_{\tau_a\leq T}X(T-\tau_a)\mid \mathcal F_{\tau_a}=1_{\tau_a\leq T}\mathbb E[X(T-\tau_a(\omega ))\mid \tau_a=\tau_a(\omega )].$$ Make sense, no ? (since $\mathbb E[f(X,Y)\mid X=x]=\mathbb E[f(x,Y)\mid X=x]$ seem to be correct according to the link you sent me previously). – Walace May 24 '20 at 13:34
  • @Walace No, it doesn't because the first "fact" is wrong. Conditioning on $\mathcal{F}{\tau_a}$ is not the same as conditioning on $\tau_a$. By definition, $$\mathbb{E}(\ldots \mid \sigma(\tau_a)) = \mathbb{E}(\ldots \mid \tau_a)$$ where $\sigma(\tau_a)$ denotes the $\sigma$-algebra generated by $\tau_a$, i.e. $\sigma(\tau_a) = {\tau_a^{-1}(B); B$ Borel $}$. The $\sigma$-algebra $\mathcal{F}{\tau_a}$ is defined differently and, in general, much larger than $\sigma(\tau_a)$. In particular, $$\mathbb{E}(\ldots \mid \mathcal{F}_{\tau_a}) \neq \mathbb{E}(\ldots \mid \tau_a).$$ – saz May 24 '20 at 13:38
  • I agree in general, but you wrote in your original answer that $$\mathbb E[1_{\tau_a\leq T}X(T-\tau_a)\mid \mathcal F_{\tau_a}]=g(\tau_a)$$ for some measurable function $g$. For me, it mean that $$\mathbb E[1_{\tau_a\leq T}X(T-\tau_a)\mid \mathcal F_{\tau_a}]=\mathbb E[1_{\tau_a\leq T}X(T-\tau_a)\mid \tau_a] ,$$am I mistaken somewhere ? (sorry to insist, and thank you for your kind help :)) @saz – Walace May 24 '20 at 20:55
  • @Walace Right, sorry, I was thinking about the general case. But if you are already at this point of my answer, then the OPs problem is essentially already solved, and so I do not see why you think that your reasoning is going to be simpler. (Note that, for the first identity, it is crucial that the indicator function is inside the conditional expectation.) – saz May 25 '20 at 13:27
  • @saz: Many thanks for everything ! Now thing are completely clear ! Thanks again. – Walace May 25 '20 at 14:08
  • @saz: Why $(X_t){t\geq 0}$ is independent from $\mathcal F{\tau_a}$ ? Shouldn't it rather be $(X_t-X_{\tau_a})_{t\geq \tau_a}$ ? – kola Jun 24 '20 at 13:12
  • @kola Note that $X_t = W_{\tau_a+t}-W_{\tau_a}$ is the "restarted" Brownian motion.... it is independent of $\mathcal{F}_{\tau_a}$ – saz Jun 24 '20 at 16:34