There are two things going on: photons (and other particles) forming due to the curvature of the spacetime, and how many of them get away to observers at infinity.
The first part is often popularly explained using particle-antiparticle pairs (an explanation mentioned in Hawking's original paper) but a more correct one is based on the Unruh effect: quantum fields subjected to strong accelerations (here by gravity) show a temperature, and this leads to particle production. This temperature is proportional to acceleration, and for black holes will be proportional to the "surface" gravity, making it scale as $T\propto 1/M$.
However, not all particles (or, strictly, their wave packets) get out since they get reabsorbed. This is determined by "greybody factors" that turn out to mainly depend on the wavelength of the particles (but also weakly on the radius), and this produces the overall power $\propto 1/M^2$. In a way these factors take the "lack of paths" into account by summing up the ways particles and waves can move to escape. But they are not calculated as actual trajectories but as solutions to the wave equations.