I encrypt some sensitive data with AES128 and I use custom method (encrypted CRC) for providing data integrity. I have calculated the probability of successful injection of invalid data that equals 4.54e-13. It means that if an attacker injects one random packet per 1 ms the probability of successfully injecting invalid data within a month is at the level of 1e-3.
Would you consider this as safe solution? I know that the answer depends on the sensitivity of the data but I struggle to find information what probabilities of injecting invalid data are considered safe
custom methodis an alias forinsecure. The probability you've evaled mostly comes from the assertion "attacker is bruteforcing like a dumb", but you might have flaws in your method that allows for smarter "injection" (which is not well defined in this question) that will drasticly decrease your probability. – Xenos Jun 18 '18 at 16:13