Here are two answers. (You've already said you don't like the second one; I'm leaving it because someone might find it useful some day.)
First:
With this TeX source
\documentclass{book}
\usepackage{etoolbox}
\newtoggle{volumeone}
%\toggletrue{volumeone}
\togglefalse{volumeone}
\iftoggle{volumeone}{
\includeonly{ch1,ch2}
}{
\includeonly{ch2,ch3}
}
\begin{document}
\tableofcontents
\include{ch1} % \chapter{one} contents
\include{ch2} % \chapter{two} contents
\include{ch3} % \chapter{three} contents
\end{document}
run pdflatex several times (to stabilize all references). Here is book.toc:
\contentsline {section}{\numberline {1.1}one}{4}
\contentsline {section}{\numberline {1.2}two}{4}
\contentsline {chapter}{\numberline {2}two}{5}
\contentsline {section}{\numberline {2.1}one}{5}
\contentsline {section}{\numberline {2.2}two}{5}
\contentsline {chapter}{\numberline {3}three}{7}
\contentsline {section}{\numberline {3.1}one}{7}
\contentsline {section}{\numberline {3.2}two}{7}
Edit that file, to remove the first two lines (all the references to Chapter one). Then rerun pdflatex once.

This works for me on Windows 7,
$ pdflatex -version
MiKTeX-pdfTeX 2.9.4535 (1.40.13) (MiKTeX 2.9)
since pdflatex hasn't noticed that the toc file is out of date.
You could automate this workflow with a shell script or batch file, using perl or python or awk to edit the toc.
Second: pagination is right but lots of other things need fixing - headers, chapter counters, references ... . I don't know how.
\documentclass{book}
\usepackage{etoolbox}
\newtoggle{volumeone}
\toggletrue{volumeone}
%\togglefalse{volumeone}
\iftoggle{volumeone}{
\includeonly{ch1,ch2,ch3}
}{
\includeonly{ch3,ch4}
}
\newcommand{\tocline}[1]{%
\addcontentsline{toc}{chapter}{#1}
}
\newcommand{\mychapter}[1]{%
%do everything the actual \chapter
%command does except enter a line in
%the table of contents
}
\newcommand{\mysection}{%
%check volumeone toggle, omit from toc as approprate
}
\begin{document}
\tableofcontents
\mychapter{one}
\iftoggle{volumeone}{\tocline{one}}{}
\include{ch1} % contents of chapter one in ch1.tex
\mychapter{two}
\iftoggle{volumeone}{\tocline{two}}{}
\include{ch2}
\mychapter{three}
\tocline{three} % in both volumes
\include{ch3}
\mychapter{four}
\iftoggle{volumeone}{}{\tocline{four}}
\include{ch4}
\end{document}

toggle the toggle

xrpackage could be used. – TeXtnik May 02 '13 at 15:21\includeonlyand\chapter*followed by\addcontentslineto get Volume 2 pagination without toc entries. It seems as if\section*does what you want but\chapter*doesn't. No time to hack more now. Maybe someone else can take this (or another idea) further. – Ethan Bolker May 02 '13 at 18:33pdftexinto using an outdated.auxfile on the second pass you can write a script to remove all the Volume 1 or 2 toc lines after compiling with\includeonly. – Ethan Bolker May 05 '13 at 01:03