Using etoolbox you can patch natbib's internal author-year citation command so that it hyperlinks only the year whenever both the year and name are included in the citation label. The code below demonstrates patches for natbib.sty, version 2010/09/13 8.31b.
\documentclass{article}
\usepackage{natbib}
\usepackage[colorlinks]{hyperref}
\usepackage{etoolbox}
\makeatletter
% Patch case where name and year are separated by aysep
\patchcmd{\NAT@citex}
{\@citea\NAT@hyper@{%
\NAT@nmfmt{\NAT@nm}%
\hyper@natlinkbreak{\NAT@aysep\NAT@spacechar}{\@citeb\@extra@b@citeb}%
\NAT@date}}
{\@citea\NAT@nmfmt{\NAT@nm}%
\NAT@aysep\NAT@spacechar\NAT@hyper@{\NAT@date}}{}{}
% Patch case where name and year are separated by opening bracket
\patchcmd{\NAT@citex}
{\@citea\NAT@hyper@{%
\NAT@nmfmt{\NAT@nm}%
\hyper@natlinkbreak{\NAT@spacechar\NAT@@open\if*#1*\else#1\NAT@spacechar\fi}%
{\@citeb\@extra@b@citeb}%
\NAT@date}}
{\@citea\NAT@nmfmt{\NAT@nm}%
\NAT@spacechar\NAT@@open\if*#1*\else#1\NAT@spacechar\fi\NAT@hyper@{\NAT@date}}
{}{}
\makeatother
\begin{filecontents}{\jobname.bib}
@book{companion,
author = {Goossens, Michel and Mittelbach, Frank and Samarin, Alexander},
title = {The LaTeX Companion},
edition = {1},
publisher = {Addison-Wesley},
location = {Reading, Mass.},
year = {1994}}
@book{adams:life,
title = {Life, the Universe and Everything},
author = {Adams, Douglas},
series = {The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy},
publisher = {Pan Macmillan},
year = {1980}}
@book{adams:rest,
title = {The Restaurant at the End of the Universe},
author = {Douglas Adams},
series = {The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy},
publisher = {Pan Macmillan},
year = {1980}}
\end{filecontents}
\newcommand{\cmd}[1]{\textbackslash\texttt{#1}}
\defcitealias{companion}{GMS}
\begin{document}
\noindent
\cmd{citet}: \citet[1--10]{companion,adams:rest,adams:life} \\
\cmd{cite}: \cite[e.g.][100]{adams:life}; \cite{adams:rest} \\
\cmd{citep}: \citep[e.g.][1--10]{adams:rest,adams:life} \\
\cmd{citetext}; \cmd{citealp}:
\citetext{see \citealp[10]{adams:rest}; or even better \citealp{adams:life}} \\
\cmd{citeauthor}, \cmd{citeauthor*}: \citeauthor{adams:life}; \citeauthor*{companion} \\
\cmd{citeyear}, \cmd{citeyearpar}: \citeyear{adams:life}; \citeyearpar{adams:rest} \\
\cmd{citetalias}, \cmd{citepalias}: \citetalias{companion}; \citepalias{companion} \\
\cmd{citenum}: \citenum{adams:life,adams:rest}
\bibliographystyle{plainnat}
\bibliography{\jobname}
\end{document}
