I stumbled upon an interaction effect between lineno.sty and \widowpenalty and \clubpenalty. It's good to put this into a record that is searchable here:
\documentclass[12pt]{article}
\widowpenalty=200000 %/150/ No Widows at top of page
\clubpenalty=100000 % this is really orphanpenalty. No orphans at bottom of page
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
\usepackage{lineno}
\linenumbers
\begin{document}
\title{The IPCC Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs):
Explained, Evaluated, Replaced?}
\author{anonymous}
\date{\today}
\maketitle
\begin{abstract}
Shared socioeconomic pathways are perhaps the most influential \emph{economic policy} analyses today. Yet, their design is problematic. Moreover, all five SSP baseline scenarios are based on empirically exceedingly improbable scenarios. An alternative --- econometric time-series analysis based on worldwide IPAT components --- suggests alternative \emph{emission} scenarios, mapping into expected radiative forcing of about RCP~6.5, with a reasonable high-plausibility range from RCP~4.5 to RCP~7.0.
\end{abstract}
\end{document}
gets you
removing the two penalty lines gets you the correct output
Suggestion: It would be nice for lineno.sty to warn or err if it detects a penalty that it has problems with. just took me a while to isolate this.


linenouses extensively large penalties in order to do its work. It doesn't expect that\widowpenaltyor\clubpenaltyare set to such large values as you do. – egreg Jan 30 '24 at 23:28